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Discover Mid-America — January 2010
New Year prediction easy
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With a new year about to descend, here’s my prediction for the Midwest antique trade: 2010 will be better than 2009. I base my analysis on one thing — I simply find it hard to believe it could get worse.
Many antique dealers and shop/mall owners probably would agree. Even if there was a disputing of my New Year business prognosis, a hard, cold factual inquiry into the state of the antique’s trade to counter mine is tough to find, particularly where the focus is on the Midwest.
Tracking the trade in terms of the number of people, shops, malls, dealers, etc. in the business and out, and how those numbers reflect revenue growth or decline in terms of sales activity from year to year seems to be available on the high-end level to some degree, but I’m unwilling to pay $500 to find out for sure — the cost of a 2008 research study by Bharat Book Bureau where the attention is on the activity of Antique and Fine Art Dealers and Auctioneers for one year, from July 2006 to July 2007.
Another high-end dealer network, Newel LLC, in New York City is somewhat bullish on the 2010 along the same lines as myself. In a Dec. 15 blog posting (http://newelsantiqueblog.com), an unnamed Newel associate wrote: “I can’t wait for 2010 because it must better than 2009 for the art and antique trade.”
Nice to have someone in New York use my in-depth extrapolation of emotion to reach the same 2010 prediction.
Antique Trader does some projections as to what a coming year might bring business-wise by simply interviewing antique show promoters and large flea market organizers. It’s an anecdotal approach much akin to my monthly question to some of our advertisers of “How’s it going”?
Lumping the antique and collectible trade into general retail projections for 2010 pretty much confirms “it’s gotta be better” scenario. The agency Fitch Ratings said that 2010 retail sales with be “flat to up modestly.” The ratings agency issued its low-key forecast because of continued high unemployment, poor consumer credit availability and “continued reduction in home values.”
I’m someone — along with most everyone in the antique business — who thinks one can’t automatically dump the antique and collectibles trade into overall retail industry research to determine who buys and deals in antiques and collectibles, and why. Acquiring an antique lamp at a flea market for a steal is different than buying new shoes or a $600 sofa for the rec room. The motivation, as they say, is the same but different.
How many times do people use the words “ the hunt” or “to discover a treasure” when describing why they’re into antiques. The emotions at play go beyond mere big-box retail buying.
Not having some hard research studies is frustrating to me. Isn’t there a business school grad student out there who wants to break some new ground? The antique and collectibles trade begs for some economic research.
Until then, just believe 2010 will be better, and Happy New Year to our advertisers, contributors and readers.
Bruce Rodgers can be contacted at publisher@discoverypub.com.
> Refurnished Thoughts Archive — past columns
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